EXCLUSIVE! The results of the model developed by FinLantern on the progress of the Coronavirus epidemic
Coronavirus Daily Comment (issue #3)
(by Riccardo Esposito, CEO at FinLantern)
In this issue:
– Presentation of the main results indicated by the monitoring and forecasting model of the epidemiological curve developed by FinLantern.
– Comment on yesterday’s data (March 19)
– Forecast on today’s data (March 20)
– Analysis of the possible impact of these data on the financial markets
– (in tomorrow’s issue) What are the main factors to consider when interpreting the data provided by the Italian Civil Protection?
Dear FinLantern friends,
Yesterday I explained to you why in my opinion the dilution policies over the time of the epidemic are destined to fail. In fact, you either control an epidemic or not … in both cases the epidemic will run in a limited time, however (excluding the re-ignition of new outbreaks or the “return” effects). Obviously the consequences may be very different in the two cases: for this reason it is better that our governments decide to control it, quickly, well, seriously and that everyone helps in doing this … then we can restart again.
My simulation tells me that the restart could be scheduled for the second half of April.
Today I would like to answer one of the questions I received from you:
QUESTION: Can FinLantern’s forecast model also be applied to Switzerland?
ANSWER: Yes, but it is still premature because the available data set is not sufficient to make the model reliable enough. The great merit of Italy is not so much to have been the first to trigger the epidemic in Europe (is there still someone who thinks this?) and therefore to have a longer series of data, but to have been the first (if not the only one) to have actively searched for the virus right away, making a total of over 170,000 swabs (coincidentally today the WHO says: “test, test, test”). Obviously, if a state does not swab and does not look for the virus, it will not even have positive cases … above all because 50% -75% of cases are asymptomatic.
For the moment I can say that Switzerland is in the midst of the exponential phase of virus propagation at a speed that is likely to exceed that of Italy. The first signs of a slowdown for the containment measures taken should start to feel slowly next week.
Once again the data announced yesterday are in line with the expectations of our model: the total positive cases increased by 5,322 units bringing the total since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy to 41,035, at the upper limit of the expected range for yesterday of 39,500-41,000 .
5,322 new positive cases in a single day is the new record, but… .:
Unfortunately, this data thwarts the hope of revising downwards the path of the contagion curve that could have been imagined after Wednesday’s data (which instead were slightly below the range indicated by us).
Well therefore we did in keeping our targets unchanged, among which at the moment the most important is to reach a RO index of 1 * as soon as possible, which will indicate that we have gone from an exponential growth of the contagion to a linear one (but still growing!). At the moment our forecast is to reach such a value during the first days of April.
* A reflection: the only way to reach a value of RO = 1 on that date is to stay home TODAY. What are all those people doing around then ???
Yesterday in Lugano it was sunny and it was a holiday, from my house I can see the beautiful Tassino park: what a strange effect to see it completely empty. Staying at home is certainly a sacrifice, but the more we are willing to sacrifice ourselves TODAY, the sooner we will restart TOMORROW.
Tomorrow I would like to analyze with you some tricks on how to interpret the data that Italia Civil Protection provides.
Keep on writing to me!
A good #IStayHome to all,
CEO – FinLantern