EXCLUSIVE! The results of the model developed by FinLantern on the progress of the Coronavirus epidemic
Coronavirus Daily Comment (issue #10)
(by Riccardo Esposito, CEO at FinLantern)
In this number:
– Update on the situation in Germany, France, Spain, UK, Switzerland and the USA
– Comment on yesterday’s data (March 30)
– Forecast on today’s data (March 31)
– Analysis of the possible impact of the latest data on the Italian market: POSITIVE!
Dear FinLantern friends,
Yesterday in Italy, with 4,050 new infected (our estimate was around 4,300), a level that has not been seen for about 2 weeks (3 weeks if you look at the increase in currently positive cases) has been reached. This data confirms our view that in Italy the peak has already been achieved and that, if everyone continues to observe the quarantine, the epidemic may soon drop to control levels. The fact that yesterday’s figure indicates a Ro <1 (equal to 0.98) must not however let the guard down. According to our simulation, for a rapid and effective return of the epidemic, Ro must reach a value of 0.70 as soon as possible.
I BELIEVE THAT YESTERDAY’S DATA SHOWS THE SUCCESS OF THE MEASURES IMPLEMENTED IN ITALY, WHICH SEEMS IT WILL BE THE FIRST WESTERN COUNTRY TO COME OUT OF THE CRISIS RESULTING FROM COVID-19. CONSEQUENTLY WE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN OVERWEIGHT OF ITALY COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES.
As anticipated yesterday, today I would like to give you an update on the situation in the other main countries based on my analysis of the evolution of the contagion factor (Ro) in each of them.
I will analyze the following countries in order from most virtuous to least virtuous: Switzerland, France, Germany, Spain, USA and UK.
SWITZERLAND: With a Ro close to unity, Switzerland would appear to be close to its peak. However, the Swiss figure should be broken down between that of the Canton Ticino, the most affected canton and where the most restrictive measures have been put in place, from the rest of Switzerland. The fear is that once the peak in Ticino is over, the epidemic may accelerate in the rest of Switzerland. PROMOTED (WITH RESERVE)
FRANCE: With a Ro of 1.52 (however still high) and a very well-defined bearish trend we continue to think that in France they are doing a good job to control the epidemic as soon as possible: PROMOTED!
GERMANY: Although Germany has a Ro (1.36) lower than that of France, we believe that the bearish trend of this contagion factor is not yet sufficiently well delineated and too volatile: POSTPONED!
SPAIN: The Ro of 1.72 is certainly still very high, but we appreciate the reduction work that has been done since last week: POSTPONED (FOR ENCOURAGEMENT)
USA: Unfortunately, we had been easy prophets last week to say that this would be the country in the world that would suffer most from the COVID-19 epidemic. However, we would also like to say that the month-long quarantine measures in place in New York City, the main outbreak, could have made an important contribution to the reduction of Ro in this country (currently at 2.13 from over 3.5 last week ): REJECTED!
UK: At the last place of this special ranking there is the United Kingdom. Probably the effects of the initial choice to let the epidemic spread have been felt in the latest data, which have even led to a rise in the Ro index to 2.95. Unfortunately, I expect the UK to be the European country that will suffer most this week. REJECTED!
We have already given our comment to the Italian data at the beginning of this Corona Daily.
Our expectation for today is that there may be an increase in new infected people compared to yesterday, such as to bring the total to around 106,000-107,000.
Nonetheless, if the number of new infected people were in the indicated range, there would be a further slight reduction in Ro.
Today I started reading a new book. It is a manual to learn how to identify and treat trigger points with massages, the main points of accumulation of stress in our body. Indeed, I can’t wait to go back to my previous life and be … stressed! 🙂
Keep on writing to me and asking me questions, and if you think my analyzes and comments are useful, don’t hesitate to share them with your friends and colleagues. To do this, use also the share button on LINKEDIN:
A good #IStayHome to all,
CEO – FinLantern
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