EXCLUSIVE! The results of the model developed by FinLantern on the progress of the Coronavirus epidemic
Coronavirus Daily Comment (issue #11)
(by Riccardo Esposito, CEO at FinLantern)
In this number:
– ITALY: the epidemic could be under control within 10 days!
– Analysis of the situation in Lombardy and the rest of Italy.
– Comment on yesterday’s data (April 1)
– Analysis of the possible impact of the latest data on the Italian market: POSITIVE!
Dear FinLantern friends,
I apologize to you for not being able to give you the usual update yesterday. In fact, a series of new work projects that I am following will probably lead me to write this comment 2 or 3 times a week.
Having said that, I am very pleased, however, to open today with excellent news. Our analysis conducted on the contagion factor (Ro), which has always given us an excellent estimate of the current trend and an anticipation of the numbers that have been announced day after day, confirms that in Italy the COVID-19 infection is in the phase of full reduction.
The Ro in Italy currently stands at 0.78 and appears to be continuing its downward trend. I clarify that already a Ro lower than 1 indicates that the epidemic is being reduced. However, the lower the Ro, the faster this reduction phase will be.
To this good news, I would like to immediately add another one: excluding the explosion of new outbreaks, the number of infected people that will occur in the reduction phase will be much less than that one during the exponential growth phase. In fact, the model I developed indicates that at the end of the COVID-19 emergency there may have been “officially” in Italy about 135,000-150,000 infected.
Considering that, today, we are just over 110,000, this means that the Italian Healthcare System is already at 75% -80% of the effort that will be required overall to manage this crisis.
Moreover, assuming a reduction of Ro with this trend, our estimate is that the epidemic in Italy, always excluding the emergence of new outbreaks, can be exhausted within a couple of weeks (if the insulation measures continue to be respected by everyone) . Therefore, the Italian government’s decision to extend the restrictive measures until April 13 is correct.
ON THE BASIS OF THIS DATA, WE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN OVERWEIGHT OF ITALY COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES.
THE SITUATION IN LOMBARDY AND THE REST OF ITALY
In order to enrich our analysis, today I will give you a glimpse of the evolution of the epidemic in Lombardy (the region most affected with 40% of the infections and 58% of the total deaths) and in the rest of Italy.
The graph above shows that the two areas, Lombardy on one side and the rest of Italy on the other, are evolving in the solution of the emergency in an absolutely parallel way. In particular, Lombardy (in red) is at a more advanced stage with a Ro of 0.61, while the rest of Italy (in blue) follows with a delay of about 4 days and reports a Ro of 0.87.
I therefore add, as my estimate, that Lombardy may have been right about the epidemic within ten days, while, as I said before, it will take a couple of weeks for the whole of Italy.
I still have many comments to share with you about this epidemic:
– How will the return to normal and what counter-measures will have to be taken to live with the virus?
– What is wrong on my opinion with analyzing the numbers of this pandemic and analyzing the contagion curves of most countries in the world?
– Why are some countries more affected than others?
– Is there really a conspiracy behind this pandemic?
– Who could benefit from this pandemic?
– Will the economic measures announced by all the countries of the world be sufficient?
– What will be the economic effects of the pandemic and the collapse of financial markets?
In short … keep following me!
Keep on writing to me and asking me questions, and if you think my analyzes and comments are useful, don’t hesitate to share them with your friends and colleagues. To do this, use also the share button on LINKEDIN:
A good #IStayHome to all,
CEO – FinLantern
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