EXCLUSIVE! The results of the model developed by FinLantern on the progress of the Coronavirus epidemic
Coronavirus Letter (issue #14)
(by Riccardo Esposito, CEO at FinLantern)
In this number:
Dear FinLantern friends,
Today I would like to give you an update on the situation in the main countries based on my analysis of the evolution in each of them of the contagion factor, R0.
I will analyze the following countries in order from most virtuous to least virtuous: Switzerland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, USA and UK.
SWITZERLAND: With a Ro now constantly under unity and a number of hospitalizations falling every day, Switzerland could be one of the next countries to be able to relax the restrictive measures and enter the so-called phase 2 for the management of the epidemic.
FRANCE: Thanks to the fact that in France the R0 factor had fallen below the unit, it was possible to have a reduction in new daily cases compared to the peak. However, pay attention to the fact that currently R0 would have returned close to the value of 1, which would indicate a situation of substantial growth plateau, certainly not yet positive given the daily levels of contagion (3,000-4,000 new cases per day).
GERMANY: Germany is also well advanced with the containment of the epidemic, having brought its R0 to unity for a few days. However, we believe that, given the levels of infection reached in Germany, it is essential to have an R0 target of at least 0.50. What sets Germany apart from all other countries is the low lethality rate of the virus in this country. Will it be thanks to its health system with more intensive care or a less aggressive virus?
ITALY: Unfortunately, in Italy there is an increase in the R0 near the unit, which is absolutely not positive in the presence of about 3,000-4,000 new cases per day. From a breakdown of the data, we highlight that this increase is mainly due to the Lombardy region. While the reason for this rise in R0 (longer incubation period of the virus?) is certainly to be understood, the tendency of the virus to become less aggressive in the new cases is confirmed (from about 70% -80% of hospitalizations at the beginning in March, to around 20% today).
SPAIN: The reduction of R0 continues, currently equal to around 0.74. The country with a daily number of cases still between 4,500 and 6,000 continues to be certainly among the most affected in Europe, although the sad record, as we will see better later, seems to have passed to the UK. We expect that the number of new infected people will start to drop significantly in the coming days.
USA: Unfortunately, the situation in the USA does not seem to be under control yet. Having an R0 near the unit in the presence of about 30,000-35,000 new (official) cases a day means that it is still too early to speak of a “phase 2” in this country. In addition, we still detect an insufficiency of tests: about 9 for every 1000 inhabitants, half of those made in Italy.
UK: Again at the end of our special ranking is the United Kingdom. An R0 of about 1.25 in the presence of about 6,000 new infected every day and a very low number of tests (about 5 per 1000 inhabitants), make us think that these numbers will even get worse. Unfortunately, among the consequences, it will not be unlikely to expect more than 1,000 daily deaths during this week.
Hoping that you too have spent a happy Easter with your families, I greet you leaving you the “original” recipe for the famous “Genoese Pasqualina Cake”.
Please, as a Genoese, forget about the mystifications with chard or spinach, the original one is with artichokes! 🙂
Keep on writing to me and asking me questions, and if you think my analyzes and comments are useful, don’t hesitate to share them with your friends and colleagues. For this purpose as well use the share button on LINKEDIN:
A good #IStayHome to all,
CEO – FinLantern
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